Combat Edge Intelligence

Gary Balletto vs Khamzat Abaev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-3-0Record6-1-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'0"
70"Reach71"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Tri-Force MMATeamTeam Terranova ASBL

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Gary BallettoNow 1633
If they win+16→ 1649
If they lose-16→ 1617
Khamzat AbaevNow 1631
If they win+24→ 1655
If they lose-24→ 1607

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1501 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1538 · 7 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Gary BallettoKhamzat Abaev
16001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (36%)
KO/TKO
5 (83%)
7 (64%)
Submission
1 (17%)
0 (0%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Khamzat Abaev60%
Gary Balletto 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Khamzat Abaev a 60% favorite over Gary Balletto in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Gary Balletto's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1633 vs 1631), separated by just 2 points.

Gary Balletto enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Gary Balletto finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Khamzat Abaev 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.