Gary Padilla vs Rômulo Oliveira
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-6-0Record7-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height6'0"
TBDReach-
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Alliance MMA· 1633 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamW Thai
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1565
If they lose-16→ 1533
If they win+24→ 1573
If they lose-24→ 1525
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1532 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1497 · 8 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Gary PadillaRômulo Oliveira
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rômulo Oliveira70%
Gary Padilla 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Rômulo Oliveira a 70% favorite over Gary Padilla in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Gary Padilla's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1549 vs 1549), separated by just 0 points.
Gary Padilla enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Gary Padilla finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Rômulo Oliveira 71%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.