Gary Quan vs Kyohei Hagiwara
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
3-5-0Record9-12-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'10"
TBDReach71.1"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team HamlettTeamTeam Smoker
What's at stake
Kyohei Hagiwara is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Gary Quan carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+29→ 1435
If they lose-19→ 1387
If they win+13→ 1492
If they lose-19→ 1460
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1485 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1548 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Gary QuanKyohei Hagiwara
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kyohei Hagiwara82%
Gary Quan 18%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Kyohei Hagiwara a 82% favorite over Gary Quan in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Kyohei Hagiwara holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1479 to 1406, a 73-point edge.
Gary Quan enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Kyohei Hagiwara enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Gary Quan finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Kyohei Hagiwara 78%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.