Combat Edge Intelligence

Gasan Umalatov vs Mike Graves

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-5-3Record11-2-2
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'10"
41,0"Reach71"
181 lbsWeight170 lbs
Astrakhan Top TeamTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Gasan UmalatovNow 1657
If they win+12→ 1669
If they lose-12→ 1645
Mike GravesNow 1657
If they win+16→ 1673
If they lose-16→ 1641

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1594 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1570 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.23
Sig. strikes / min
1.25
40%
Strike accuracy
54%
4.10
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.47
60%
Strike defense
59%
0.75
Takedown avg.
4.80
18%
Takedown accuracy
0%
90%
Takedown defense
67%
0
Submission avg.
0.40

Trajectory

Gasan UmalatovMike Graves
1650170020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (22%)
KO/TKO
5 (45%)
7 (39%)
Submission
3 (27%)
7 (39%)
Decision
3 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Mike Graves70%
Gasan Umalatov 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Mike Graves a 70% favorite over Gasan Umalatov in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Gasan Umalatov's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1657 vs 1657), separated by just 0 points.

Gasan Umalatov finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Mike Graves 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.