Combat Edge Intelligence

Gasan Umalatov vs Paulo Thiago

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-5-3Record19-11-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'11"
41,0"ReachTBD
181 lbsWeight170 lbs
Astrakhan Top TeamTeamX-Gym

What's at stake

Gasan Umalatov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Paulo Thiago carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gasan UmalatovNow 1656
If they win+10→ 1666
If they lose-14→ 1642
Paulo ThiagoNow 1595
If they win+14→ 1609
If they lose-10→ 1585

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1594 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1579 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.23
Sig. strikes / min
1.71
40%
Strike accuracy
39%
4.10
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.99
60%
Strike defense
64%
0.75
Takedown avg.
1.42
18%
Takedown accuracy
32%
90%
Takedown defense
64%
0
Submission avg.
1.21

Trajectory

Gasan UmalatovPaulo Thiago
160016502016201720182019

Win method breakdown

4 (22%)
KO/TKO
2 (11%)
7 (39%)
Submission
10 (53%)
7 (39%)
Decision
7 (37%)

Combat Edge model read

Gasan Umalatov75%
Paulo Thiago 25%Elo baseline: 59%

The Combat Edge model makes Gasan Umalatov a 75% favorite over Paulo Thiago in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).

Gasan Umalatov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1656 to 1595, a 61-point edge.

Gasan Umalatov finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Paulo Thiago 63%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.