Combat Edge Intelligence

Gaston Bolaños vs Marcus McGhee

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-5-0Record11-2-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'8"
69"Reach69"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
CSATeamMMA Lab

What's at stake

Marcus McGhee is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Gaston Bolaños carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gaston BolañosNow 1596
If they win+21→ 1617
If they lose-11→ 1585
Marcus McGheeNow 1704
If they win+11→ 1715
If they lose-21→ 1683

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1563 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1590 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.28
Sig. strikes / min
5.50
49%
Strike accuracy
45%
2.40
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.64
51%
Strike defense
58%
0.66
Takedown avg.
0.31
100%
Takedown accuracy
14%
43%
Takedown defense
90%
0
Submission avg.
0.31

Trajectory

Gaston BolañosMarcus McGhee
160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (67%)
KO/TKO
8 (73%)
0 (0%)
Submission
1 (9%)
3 (33%)
Decision
2 (18%)

Combat Edge model read

Marcus McGhee71%
Gaston Bolaños 29%Elo baseline: 65%

The Combat Edge model makes Marcus McGhee a 71% favorite over Gaston Bolaños in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).

Marcus McGhee holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1704 to 1596, a 108-point edge.

Gaston Bolaños finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Marcus McGhee 82%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.