Combat Edge Intelligence

Gavin Tucker vs Sam Sicilia

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-3-0Record18-11-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'8"
66"Reach67,0"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Titans MMATeamSikjitsu

What's at stake

Gavin Tucker is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Sam Sicilia carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gavin TuckerNow 1668
If they win+12→ 1680
If they lose-20→ 1648
Sam SiciliaNow 1574
If they win+15→ 1589
If they lose-9→ 1565

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1607 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1604 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.29
Sig. strikes / min
2.46
45%
Strike accuracy
34%
4.18
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.55
57%
Strike defense
59%
3.13
Takedown avg.
1.45
44%
Takedown accuracy
43%
54%
Takedown defense
70%
1.46
Submission avg.
0.87

Trajectory

Gavin TuckerSam Sicilia
155016001650170020192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

4 (31%)
KO/TKO
9 (50%)
6 (46%)
Submission
4 (22%)
3 (23%)
Decision
5 (28%)

Combat Edge model read

Gavin Tucker72%
Sam Sicilia 28%Elo baseline: 63%

The Combat Edge model makes Gavin Tucker a 72% favorite over Sam Sicilia in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).

Gavin Tucker holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1668 to 1574, a 94-point edge.

Gavin Tucker enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Gavin Tucker finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Sam Sicilia 72%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.