Combat Edge Intelligence

Gegard Mousasi vs Khamzat Chimaev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

49-9-2Record15-1-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'2"
42,0"Reach75"
185 lbsWeight186 lbs
Team JurojinTeamAllstars Training Center

What's at stake

Gegard Mousasi is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Khamzat Chimaev carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gegard MousasiNow 1856
If they win+11→ 1867
If they lose-13→ 1843
Khamzat ChimaevNow 1828
If they win+17→ 1845
If they lose-15→ 1813

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1732 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1750 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.75
Sig. strikes / min
4.01
51%
Strike accuracy
54%
1.21
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.98
69%
Strike defense
52%
1.59
Takedown avg.
5.32
60%
Takedown accuracy
58%
60%
Takedown defense
88%
1.15
Submission avg.
1.37

Trajectory

Gegard MousasiKhamzat Chimaev
180018501900202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

28 (57%)
KO/TKO
6 (40%)
12 (24%)
Submission
6 (40%)
9 (18%)
Decision
3 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Khamzat Chimaev73%
Gegard Mousasi 27%Elo baseline: 46%

The Combat Edge model makes Khamzat Chimaev a 73% favorite over Gegard Mousasi in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Gegard Mousasi's way (46%).

Gegard Mousasi holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1856 to 1828, a 28-point edge.

Gegard Mousasi enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Gegard Mousasi finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Khamzat Chimaev 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.