Gegard Mousasi vs Lyoto Machida
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
49-9-2Record26-12-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'1"
42,0"Reach74"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Team JurojinTeamAPAM
What's at stake
Gegard Mousasi is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Lyoto Machida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+7→ 1863
If they lose-17→ 1839
If they win+17→ 1702
If they lose-7→ 1678
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1732 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1718 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Gegard MousasiLyoto Machida
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gegard Mousasi83%
Lyoto Machida 17%Elo baseline: 73%
The Combat Edge model makes Gegard Mousasi a 83% favorite over Lyoto Machida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (73%).
Gegard Mousasi holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1856 to 1685, a 171-point edge.
Gegard Mousasi enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Lyoto Machida enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Gegard Mousasi finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Lyoto Machida 50%.
Gegard Mousasi and Lyoto Machida share 2 common opponents: Fabian Edwards and Rafael Carvalho.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Common opponents (2)
Win Punches · 2018
WinDecision (Split) · 2018