Gegard Mousasi vs Michael Page
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
49-9-2Record26-3-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height6'3"
42,0"Reach79"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team JurojinTeamLondon Shootfighters
What's at stake
Gegard Mousasi is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Michael Page carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1867
If they lose-13→ 1843
If they win+13→ 1850
If they lose-11→ 1826
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1732 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1722 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Gegard MousasiMichael Page
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Michael Page51%
Gegard Mousasi 49%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Michael Page a 51% favorite over Gegard Mousasi in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Gegard Mousasi's way (47%).
Gegard Mousasi holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1856 to 1837, a 19-point edge.
Gegard Mousasi enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Michael Page enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Gegard Mousasi finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Michael Page 62%.
Gegard Mousasi and Michael Page share 1 common opponent: Douglas Lima.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.