Combat Edge Intelligence

Gegard Mousasi vs Ronaldo Souza

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

49-9-2Record26-10-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'1"
42,0"Reach72"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Team JurojinTeamFusion X-Cel Performance

What's at stake

Gegard Mousasi is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Ronaldo Souza carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gegard MousasiNow 1856
If they win+8→ 1864
If they lose-16→ 1840
Ronaldo SouzaNow 1749
If they win+16→ 1765
If they lose-8→ 1741

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1732 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1726 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.75
Sig. strikes / min
2.53
51%
Strike accuracy
47%
1.21
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.83
69%
Strike defense
62%
1.59
Takedown avg.
2.57
60%
Takedown accuracy
39%
60%
Takedown defense
58%
1.15
Submission avg.
1.34

Trajectory

Gegard MousasiRonaldo Souza
175018001850190020192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

28 (57%)
KO/TKO
8 (31%)
12 (24%)
Submission
14 (54%)
9 (18%)
Decision
4 (15%)

Combat Edge model read

Gegard Mousasi69%
Ronaldo Souza 31%Elo baseline: 65%

The Combat Edge model makes Gegard Mousasi a 69% favorite over Ronaldo Souza in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).

Gegard Mousasi holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1856 to 1749, a 107-point edge.

Gegard Mousasi enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Ronaldo Souza enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Gegard Mousasi finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Ronaldo Souza 85%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.