Combat Edge Intelligence

Gegard Mousasi vs Sean Strickland

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

49-9-2Record31-7-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'1"
42,0"Reach76"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Team JurojinTeamXtreme Couture

What's at stake

Gegard Mousasi is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Sean Strickland carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gegard MousasiNow 1856
If they win+11→ 1867
If they lose-13→ 1843
Sean StricklandNow 1823
If they win+13→ 1836
If they lose-11→ 1812

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1732 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1742 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.75
Sig. strikes / min
6.04
51%
Strike accuracy
43%
1.21
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.57
69%
Strike defense
61%
1.59
Takedown avg.
0.71
60%
Takedown accuracy
64%
60%
Takedown defense
77%
1.15
Submission avg.
0.16

Trajectory

Gegard MousasiSean Strickland
180018501900202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

28 (57%)
KO/TKO
12 (39%)
12 (24%)
Submission
4 (13%)
9 (18%)
Decision
15 (48%)

Combat Edge model read

Sean Strickland72%
Gegard Mousasi 28%Elo baseline: 45%

The Combat Edge model makes Sean Strickland a 72% favorite over Gegard Mousasi in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Gegard Mousasi's way (45%).

Gegard Mousasi holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1856 to 1823, a 33-point edge.

Gegard Mousasi enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Sean Strickland enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Gegard Mousasi finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Sean Strickland 52%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.