Combat Edge Intelligence

Gegard Mousasi vs Thales Leites

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

49-9-2Record28-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'1"
42,0"Reach78,0"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Team JurojinTeamNova Uniao

What's at stake

Gegard Mousasi is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Thales Leites carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gegard MousasiNow 1856
If they win+8→ 1864
If they lose-16→ 1840
Thales LeitesNow 1744
If they win+16→ 1760
If they lose-8→ 1736

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1732 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1713 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.75
Sig. strikes / min
2.13
51%
Strike accuracy
41%
1.21
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.99
69%
Strike defense
53%
1.59
Takedown avg.
2.10
60%
Takedown accuracy
27%
60%
Takedown defense
31%
1.15
Submission avg.
1.14

Trajectory

Gegard MousasiThales Leites
17501800185019002017201820192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

28 (57%)
KO/TKO
4 (14%)
12 (24%)
Submission
15 (54%)
9 (18%)
Decision
9 (32%)

Combat Edge model read

Gegard Mousasi64%
Thales Leites 36%Elo baseline: 66%

The Combat Edge model makes Gegard Mousasi a 64% favorite over Thales Leites in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).

Gegard Mousasi holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1856 to 1744, a 112-point edge.

Gegard Mousasi enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Gegard Mousasi finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Thales Leites 68%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.