Combat Edge Intelligence

Gegard Mousasi vs Thiago Santos

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

49-9-2Record22-13-0
MiddleweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
42,0"Reach 76"
185 lbsWeight241 lbs
Team JurojinTeamTeam Marreta

What's at stake

Gegard Mousasi is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Thiago Santos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gegard MousasiNow 1856
If they win+6→ 1862
If they lose-18→ 1838
Thiago SantosNow 1674
If they win+18→ 1692
If they lose-6→ 1668

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1732 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1726 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.75
Sig. strikes / min
3.72
51%
Strike accuracy
48%
1.21
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.57
69%
Strike defense
54%
1.59
Takedown avg.
0.88
60%
Takedown accuracy
33%
60%
Takedown defense
66%
1.15
Submission avg.
0.06

Trajectory

Gegard MousasiThiago Santos
17001800190020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

28 (57%)
KO/TKO
15 (68%)
12 (24%)
Submission
1 (5%)
9 (18%)
Decision
6 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Gegard Mousasi80%
Thiago Santos 20%Elo baseline: 74%

The Combat Edge model makes Gegard Mousasi a 80% favorite over Thiago Santos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (74%).

Gegard Mousasi holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1856 to 1674, a 182-point edge.

Gegard Mousasi enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Thiago Santos enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Gegard Mousasi finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Santos 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.