Combat Edge Intelligence

Gegard Mousasi vs Thiago Santos

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

49-9-2Record22-13-0
MiddleweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
42,0"Reach 76"
185 lbsWeight241 lbs
Team JurojinTeamTeam Marreta

What's at stake

Gegard Mousasi is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Thiago Santos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gegard MousasiNow 1856
If they win+7→ 1863
If they lose-17→ 1839
Thiago SantosNow 1694
If they win+17→ 1711
If they lose-7→ 1687

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1732 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1743 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.75
Sig. strikes / min
3.72
51%
Strike accuracy
48%
1.21
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.57
69%
Strike defense
54%
1.59
Takedown avg.
0.88
60%
Takedown accuracy
33%
60%
Takedown defense
66%
1.15
Submission avg.
0.06

Trajectory

Gegard MousasiThiago Santos
170017501800185019002021202220232024

Win method breakdown

28 (57%)
KO/TKO
15 (68%)
12 (24%)
Submission
1 (5%)
9 (18%)
Decision
6 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Gegard Mousasi79%
Thiago Santos 21%Elo baseline: 72%

The Combat Edge model makes Gegard Mousasi a 79% favorite over Thiago Santos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (72%).

Gegard Mousasi holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1856 to 1694, a 162-point edge.

Gegard Mousasi enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Thiago Santos enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Gegard Mousasi finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Santos 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.