Geoff Neal vs Ian Machado Garry
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-8-0Record17-1-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'3"
75"Reach74"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Fortis MMATeamChute Boxe Diego Lima
What's at stake
Ian Machado Garry is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Geoff Neal carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1714
If they lose-10→ 1682
If they win+10→ 1836
If they lose-22→ 1804
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1743 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1741 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Geoff NealIan Machado Garry
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ian Machado Garry87%
Geoff Neal 13%Elo baseline: 68%
The Combat Edge model makes Ian Machado Garry a 87% favorite over Geoff Neal in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).
Ian Machado Garry holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1826 to 1692, a 134-point edge.
Geoff Neal enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Ian Machado Garry enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Geoff Neal finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Ian Machado Garry 47%.
Geoff Neal and Ian Machado Garry share 3 common opponents: Carlos Prates, Shavkat Rakhmonov and Neil Magny.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.