Geoff Neal vs Luan Chagas
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-8-0Record15-3-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'11"
75"Reach75,0"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Fortis MMATeamGile Ribeiro Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1708
If they lose-16→ 1676
If they win+16→ 1708
If they lose-16→ 1676
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1743 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1564 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Geoff NealLuan Chagas
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Luan Chagas52%
Geoff Neal 48%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Luan Chagas a 52% favorite over Geoff Neal in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Geoff Neal's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1692 vs 1692), separated by just 0 points.
Geoff Neal enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Geoff Neal finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Luan Chagas 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.