Geoff Neal vs Rafael dos Anjos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-8-0Record32-17-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'8"
75"Reach70"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Fortis MMATeamRDA Academy
What's at stake
Rafael dos Anjos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Geoff Neal carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1709
If they lose-15→ 1677
If they win+11→ 1724
If they lose-13→ 1700
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1743 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1737 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Geoff NealRafael dos Anjos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Geoff Neal70%
Rafael dos Anjos 30%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Geoff Neal a 70% favorite over Rafael dos Anjos in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Rafael dos Anjos's way (47%).
Rafael dos Anjos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1713 to 1692, a 21-point edge.
Geoff Neal enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Rafael dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Geoff Neal finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Rafael dos Anjos 50%.
Geoff Neal and Rafael dos Anjos share 1 common opponent: Vicente Luque.
Geoff Neal carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.