Geoff Neal vs Stephen Thompson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-8-0Record17-9-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
75"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Fortis MMATeamTeam Upstate Karate
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1708
If they lose-16→ 1676
If they win+16→ 1718
If they lose-16→ 1686
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1743 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1749 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Geoff NealStephen Thompson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Geoff Neal70%
Stephen Thompson 30%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Geoff Neal a 70% favorite over Stephen Thompson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Stephen Thompson's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1692 vs 1702), separated by just 10 points.
Geoff Neal enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Geoff Neal finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Stephen Thompson 53%.
Geoff Neal and Stephen Thompson share 2 common opponents: Shavkat Rakhmonov and Vicente Luque.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.