Geoff Neal vs Vicente Luque
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-8-0Record24-13-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'11"
75"Reach75″
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Fortis MMATeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Vicente Luque is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Geoff Neal carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1710
If they lose-15→ 1678
If they win+11→ 1719
If they lose-13→ 1695
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1744 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1716 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Geoff NealVicente Luque
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Vicente Luque54%
Geoff Neal 46%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Vicente Luque a 54% favorite over Geoff Neal in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Vicente Luque holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1708 to 1693, a 15-point edge.
Geoff Neal enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Geoff Neal finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Vicente Luque 88%.
Geoff Neal and Vicente Luque share 1 common opponent: Rafael dos Anjos.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.