Combat Edge Intelligence

Geoff Pavey vs James Gabert

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Geoff Pavey
gb-eng

Geoff Pavey

“JiuJitsu”

3-3-0MiddleweightCWFC

1501Average

Tale of the tape

3-3-0Record6-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'5"HeightTBD
-ReachTBD
186 lbsWeight178 lbs
Sensei MMATeamSerra-Longo Fight Team· 1771 avg Elo · 4 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Geoff PaveyNow 1501
If they win+24→ 1525
If they lose-24→ 1477
James GabertNow 1508
If they win+16→ 1524
If they lose-16→ 1492

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1515 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1502 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Geoff PaveyJames Gabert
1450150015501600200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (100%)
KO/TKO
1 (17%)
0 (0%)
Submission
2 (33%)
0 (0%)
Decision
3 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Geoff Pavey and James Gabert within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1501 vs 1508), separated by just 7 points.

James Gabert enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Geoff Pavey finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, James Gabert 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.