Geoff Pavey vs James Irvin
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
3-3-0Record17-10-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'5"Height6'2"
-ReachTBD
186 lbsWeight185 lbs
Sensei MMATeamReign MMA
What's at stake
Geoff Pavey is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — James Irvin carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1524
If they lose-25→ 1476
If they win+17→ 1502
If they lose-15→ 1470
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1515 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1585 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Geoff PaveyJames Irvin
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Geoff Pavey66%
James Irvin 34%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Geoff Pavey a 66% favorite over James Irvin in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Geoff Pavey holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1501 to 1485, a 16-point edge.
Geoff Pavey finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, James Irvin 94%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.