Geoff Pavey vs Josh Bumgarner
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
3-3-0Record6-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'5"Height6'1"
-ReachTBD
186 lbsWeight175 lbs
Sensei MMATeamTeam Peak Performance
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1524
If they lose-24→ 1476
If they win+24→ 1530
If they lose-24→ 1482
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1514 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1515 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Geoff PaveyJosh Bumgarner
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Geoff Pavey56%
Josh Bumgarner 44%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Geoff Pavey a 56% favorite over Josh Bumgarner in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Josh Bumgarner's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1500 vs 1506), separated by just 6 points.
Josh Bumgarner enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Geoff Pavey finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Josh Bumgarner 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.