Combat Edge Intelligence

Geoff Pavey vs Marcio Cabral

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Geoff Pavey
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Geoff Pavey

“JiuJitsu”

3-3-0MiddleweightCWFC

1501Average

Tale of the tape

3-3-0Record13-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'5"Height6'1"
-Reach-
186 lbsWeight185 lbs
Sensei MMATeamBonfim Brothers

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Geoff PaveyNow 1501
If they win+24→ 1525
If they lose-24→ 1477
Marcio CabralNow 1499
If they win+24→ 1523
If they lose-24→ 1475

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1515 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1526 · 7 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Geoff PaveyMarcio Cabral
14501500155020252026

Win method breakdown

3 (100%)
KO/TKO
9 (69%)
0 (0%)
Submission
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Decision
4 (31%)

Combat Edge model read

Marcio Cabral66%
Geoff Pavey 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Marcio Cabral a 66% favorite over Geoff Pavey in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Geoff Pavey's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1501 vs 1499), separated by just 2 points.

Geoff Pavey finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Marcio Cabral 69%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.