Geoff Pavey vs Marcio Cabral
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
3-3-0Record13-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'5"Height6'1"
-Reach-
186 lbsWeight185 lbs
Sensei MMATeamBonfim Brothers· 1594 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1525
If they lose-24→ 1477
If they win+24→ 1521
If they lose-24→ 1473
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1514 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1523 · 7 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Geoff PaveyMarcio Cabral
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Marcio Cabral54%
Geoff Pavey 46%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Marcio Cabral a 54% favorite over Geoff Pavey in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Geoff Pavey's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1501 vs 1497), separated by just 4 points.
Geoff Pavey finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Marcio Cabral 69%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.