Combat Edge Intelligence

Geoff Pavey vs Paul Herrera

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Geoff Pavey
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Geoff Pavey

“JiuJitsu”

3-3-0MiddleweightCWFC

1501Average

Tale of the tape

3-3-0Record1-1-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'5"Height5'10"
-ReachTBD
186 lbsWeight185 lbs
Sensei MMATeamEmpire Training Center

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Geoff PaveyNow 1501
If they win+24→ 1525
If they lose-24→ 1477
Paul HerreraNow 1498
If they win+24→ 1522
If they lose-24→ 1474

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1515 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1513 · 2 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Geoff PaveyPaul Herrera
145015001550200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (100%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Submission
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Decision
1 (100%)

Combat Edge model read

Geoff Pavey60%
Paul Herrera 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Geoff Pavey a 60% favorite over Paul Herrera in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1501 vs 1498), separated by just 3 points.

Geoff Pavey finishes 100% of wins inside the distance.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.