Geoff Pavey vs Travis Lutter
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
3-3-0Record10-6-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'5"Height6'2"
-ReachTBD
186 lbsWeight185 lbs
Sensei MMATeamLion's Den Dallas
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1525
If they lose-24→ 1477
If they win+24→ 1528
If they lose-24→ 1480
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1515 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1638 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Geoff PaveyTravis Lutter
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Geoff Pavey75%
Travis Lutter 25%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Geoff Pavey a 75% favorite over Travis Lutter in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Travis Lutter's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1501 vs 1504), separated by just 3 points.
Geoff Pavey finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Travis Lutter 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.