Geoff Pavey vs Yuki Sasaki
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
3-3-0Record25-22-2
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'5"Height6'0"
-ReachTBD
186 lbsWeight180 lbs
Sensei MMATeamGrabaka
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+23→ 1524
If they lose-25→ 1476
If they win+17→ 1505
If they lose-15→ 1473
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1515 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1631 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Geoff PaveyYuki Sasaki
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Geoff Pavey80%
Yuki Sasaki 20%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Geoff Pavey a 80% favorite over Yuki Sasaki in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1501 vs 1488), separated by just 13 points.
Yuki Sasaki enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Geoff Pavey finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Yuki Sasaki 68%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.