Combat Edge Intelligence

George Sullivan vs Igor Araujo

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-8-0Record25-10-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'1"
73,5"ReachTBD
169 lbsWeight170 lbs
Pellegrino MMATeamJackson-Wink MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

George SullivanNow 1646
If they win+12→ 1658
If they lose-12→ 1634
Igor AraujoNow 1639
If they win+12→ 1651
If they lose-12→ 1627

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1597 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1577 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.53
Sig. strikes / min
1.52
40%
Strike accuracy
42%
2.42
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.86
58%
Strike defense
50%
1.37
Takedown avg.
0.86
21%
Takedown accuracy
16%
38%
Takedown defense
22%
0.69
Submission avg.
0.57

Trajectory

George SullivanIgor Araujo
165020162017201820192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

11 (58%)
KO/TKO
1 (4%)
0 (0%)
Submission
17 (68%)
8 (42%)
Decision
7 (28%)

Combat Edge model read

George Sullivan60%
Igor Araujo 40%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes George Sullivan a 60% favorite over Igor Araujo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1646 vs 1639), separated by just 7 points.

George Sullivan enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Igor Araujo enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

George Sullivan finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Igor Araujo 72%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.