Combat Edge Intelligence

Gerald Harris vs Maiquel Falcao

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

26-8-1Record39-21-0
WelterweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
5'11"Height5'9"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight202 lbs
Hurricane FitnessTeamRasthai Temple

What's at stake

Gerald Harris is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Maiquel Falcao carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gerald HarrisNow 1661
If they win+8→ 1669
If they lose-16→ 1645
Maiquel FalcaoNow 1528
If they win+16→ 1544
If they lose-8→ 1520

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1557 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1552 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.22
Sig. strikes / min
1.67
26%
Strike accuracy
56%
2.10
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
0.53
63%
Strike defense
87%
2.62
Takedown avg.
1
57%
Takedown accuracy
100%
73%
Takedown defense
71%
0
Submission avg.
3

Trajectory

Gerald HarrisMaiquel Falcao
155016001650170020172018201920202021

Win method breakdown

15 (58%)
KO/TKO
27 (69%)
2 (8%)
Submission
5 (13%)
9 (35%)
Decision
7 (18%)

Combat Edge model read

Gerald Harris72%
Maiquel Falcao 28%Elo baseline: 68%

The Combat Edge model makes Gerald Harris a 72% favorite over Maiquel Falcao in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).

Gerald Harris holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1661 to 1528, a 133-point edge.

Maiquel Falcao enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Gerald Harris finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Maiquel Falcao 82%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.