Combat Edge Intelligence

Gerald Meerschaert vs Khamzat Chimaev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

37-22-0Record15-1-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'2"
77"Reach75"
185 lbsWeight186 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamAllstars Training Center

What's at stake

Khamzat Chimaev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Gerald Meerschaert carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gerald MeerschaertNow 1650
If they win+18→ 1668
If they lose-6→ 1644
Khamzat ChimaevNow 1828
If they win+8→ 1836
If they lose-24→ 1804

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1688 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1750 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.01
Sig. strikes / min
4.01
45%
Strike accuracy
54%
3.52
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.98
53%
Strike defense
52%
1.82
Takedown avg.
5.32
30%
Takedown accuracy
58%
43%
Takedown defense
88%
1.38
Submission avg.
1.37

Trajectory

Gerald MeerschaertKhamzat Chimaev
16501700175018001850202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (16%)
KO/TKO
6 (40%)
29 (78%)
Submission
6 (40%)
2 (5%)
Decision
3 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Khamzat Chimaev92%
Gerald Meerschaert 8%Elo baseline: 74%

The Combat Edge model makes Khamzat Chimaev a 92% favorite over Gerald Meerschaert in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (74%).

Khamzat Chimaev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1828 to 1650, a 178-point edge.

Gerald Meerschaert enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Gerald Meerschaert finishes 95% of wins inside the distance, Khamzat Chimaev 80%.

Gerald Meerschaert carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.