Combat Edge Intelligence

Gerald Meerschaert vs Thiago Santos

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

37-22-0Record22-13-0
MiddleweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'2"
77"Reach 76"
185 lbsWeight241 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamTeam Marreta

What's at stake

Thiago Santos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Gerald Meerschaert carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gerald MeerschaertNow 1650
If they win+13→ 1663
If they lose-11→ 1639
Thiago SantosNow 1674
If they win+11→ 1685
If they lose-13→ 1661

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1689 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1726 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.01
Sig. strikes / min
3.72
45%
Strike accuracy
48%
3.52
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.57
53%
Strike defense
54%
1.82
Takedown avg.
0.88
30%
Takedown accuracy
33%
43%
Takedown defense
66%
1.38
Submission avg.
0.06

Trajectory

Gerald MeerschaertThiago Santos
165017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (16%)
KO/TKO
15 (68%)
29 (78%)
Submission
1 (5%)
2 (5%)
Decision
6 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Gerald Meerschaert60%
Thiago Santos 40%Elo baseline: 47%

The Combat Edge model makes Gerald Meerschaert a 60% favorite over Thiago Santos in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Thiago Santos's way (47%).

Thiago Santos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1674 to 1650, a 24-point edge.

Gerald Meerschaert enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Thiago Santos enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Gerald Meerschaert finishes 95% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Santos 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.