Combat Edge Intelligence

Gerald Meerschaert vs Thiago Santos

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

37-22-0Record22-13-0
MiddleweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'2"
77"Reach 76"
185 lbsWeight241 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamTeam Marreta

What's at stake

Thiago Santos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Gerald Meerschaert carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gerald MeerschaertNow 1650
If they win+14→ 1664
If they lose-10→ 1640
Thiago SantosNow 1694
If they win+10→ 1704
If they lose-14→ 1680

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1688 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1743 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.01
Sig. strikes / min
3.72
45%
Strike accuracy
48%
3.52
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.57
53%
Strike defense
54%
1.82
Takedown avg.
0.88
30%
Takedown accuracy
33%
43%
Takedown defense
66%
1.38
Submission avg.
0.06

Trajectory

Gerald MeerschaertThiago Santos
16501700175020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (16%)
KO/TKO
15 (68%)
29 (78%)
Submission
1 (5%)
2 (5%)
Decision
6 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Gerald Meerschaert52%
Thiago Santos 48%Elo baseline: 44%

The Combat Edge model makes Gerald Meerschaert a 52% favorite over Thiago Santos in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Thiago Santos's way (44%).

Thiago Santos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1694 to 1650, a 44-point edge.

Gerald Meerschaert enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Thiago Santos enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Gerald Meerschaert finishes 95% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Santos 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.