Combat Edge Intelligence

Gerald Strebendt vs Josh Thomson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-7-0Record22-9-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight153 lbs
10th Planet Jiu-JitsuTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy· 1641 avg Elo · 5 rated

What's at stake

Josh Thomson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Gerald Strebendt carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gerald StrebendtNow 1522
If they win+23→ 1545
If they lose-9→ 1513
Josh ThomsonNow 1684
If they win+7→ 1691
If they lose-17→ 1667

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1566 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1671 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0
Sig. strikes / min
2.59
TBD
Strike accuracy
48%
4
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.12
39%
Strike defense
64%
0
Takedown avg.
1.92
TBD
Takedown accuracy
40%
0%
Takedown defense
55%
16.36
Submission avg.
1.34

Trajectory

Gerald StrebendtJosh Thomson
1550160016501700200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017

Win method breakdown

1 (11%)
KO/TKO
7 (32%)
8 (89%)
Submission
9 (41%)
0 (0%)
Decision
6 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Josh Thomson72%
Gerald Strebendt 28%Elo baseline: 72%

The Combat Edge model makes Josh Thomson a 72% favorite over Gerald Strebendt in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (72%).

Josh Thomson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1684 to 1522, a 162-point edge.

Gerald Strebendt finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Josh Thomson 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.