Combat Edge Intelligence

Gerard Gordeau vs Nicolaj Wagner

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

2-2-0Record5-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'5"Height6'2"
TBDReach-
216 lbsWeight249 lbs
KamakuraTeamTBD

What's at stake

Nicolaj Wagner is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Gerard Gordeau carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gerard GordeauNow 1506
If they win+26→ 1532
If they lose-22→ 1484
Nicolaj WagnerNow 1532
If they win+22→ 1554
If they lose-26→ 1506

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1500 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1498 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

0
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Gerard GordeauNicolaj Wagner
145015001550199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (100%)
KO/TKO
5 (100%)
0 (0%)
Submission
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Nicolaj Wagner62%
Gerard Gordeau 38%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Nicolaj Wagner a 62% favorite over Gerard Gordeau in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Nicolaj Wagner holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1532 to 1506, a 26-point edge.

Nicolaj Wagner 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.