Gesias Cavalcante vs Isaac Vallie-Flagg
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-12-1Record16-7-1
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'8"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight159 lbs
BlackziliansTeamJackson-Wink MMA
What's at stake
Gesias Cavalcante is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Isaac Vallie-Flagg carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1671
If they lose-14→ 1647
If they win+14→ 1627
If they lose-10→ 1603
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1612 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1620 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Gesias CavalcanteIsaac Vallie-Flagg
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gesias Cavalcante66%
Isaac Vallie-Flagg 34%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Gesias Cavalcante a 66% favorite over Isaac Vallie-Flagg in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Gesias Cavalcante holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1661 to 1613, a 48-point edge.
Gesias Cavalcante finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Isaac Vallie-Flagg 63%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.