Gesias Cavalcante vs Marcos Aurélio
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-12-1Record10-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'8"
TBDReach69"
155 lbsWeight152 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1673
If they lose-12→ 1649
If they win+16→ 1678
If they lose-16→ 1646
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1612 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1508 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Gesias CavalcanteMarcos Aurélio
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gesias Cavalcante55%
Marcos Aurélio 45%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Gesias Cavalcante a 55% favorite over Marcos Aurélio in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Marcos Aurélio's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1661 vs 1662), separated by just 1 points.
Marcos Aurélio enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Gesias Cavalcante finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Marcos Aurélio 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.