Combat Edge Intelligence

Gesias Cavalcante vs Marcos Aurélio

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-12-1Record10-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'8"
TBDReach69"
155 lbsWeight152 lbs
BlackziliansTeamMutaru

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Gesias CavalcanteNow 1660
If they win+12→ 1672
If they lose-12→ 1648
Marcos AurélioNow 1661
If they win+16→ 1677
If they lose-16→ 1645

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1612 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1506 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Gesias CavalcanteMarcos Aurélio
1550160016502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (32%)
KO/TKO
5 (50%)
10 (45%)
Submission
3 (30%)
5 (23%)
Decision
2 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Marcos Aurélio82%
Gesias Cavalcante 18%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Marcos Aurélio a 82% favorite over Gesias Cavalcante in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1660 vs 1661), separated by just 1 points.

Marcos Aurélio enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Gesias Cavalcante finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Marcos Aurélio 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.