Combat Edge Intelligence

Gil Castillo vs Matt Hughes

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-5-0Record45-9-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'9"
TBDReach73"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Cesar Gracie Fight TeamTeamHIT Squad

What's at stake

Matt Hughes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — Gil Castillo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gil CastilloNow 1576
If they win+25→ 1601
If they lose-7→ 1569
Matt HughesNow 1807
If they win+5→ 1812
If they lose-19→ 1788

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1609 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1642 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.60
Sig. strikes / min
2.14
45%
Strike accuracy
53%
2.22
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.36
44%
Strike defense
54%
3.33
Takedown avg.
2.95
45%
Takedown accuracy
50%
50%
Takedown defense
35%
0
Submission avg.
1.18

Trajectory

Gil CastilloMatt Hughes
16001700180020042005200620072008200920102011

Win method breakdown

2 (25%)
KO/TKO
21 (47%)
2 (25%)
Submission
14 (31%)
4 (50%)
Decision
10 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Matt Hughes78%
Gil Castillo 22%Elo baseline: 79%

The Combat Edge model makes Matt Hughes a 78% favorite over Gil Castillo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (79%).

Matt Hughes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1807 to 1576, a 231-point edge.

Matt Hughes enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Gil Castillo finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Matt Hughes 78%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.