Combat Edge Intelligence

Gil Castillo vs Takashi Sato

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-5-0Record15-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'10"
TBDReach73"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Cesar Gracie Fight TeamTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Gil CastilloNow 1576
If they win+16→ 1592
If they lose-16→ 1560
Takashi SatoNow 1579
If they win+12→ 1591
If they lose-12→ 1567

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1609 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1621 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.60
Sig. strikes / min
2.21
45%
Strike accuracy
42%
2.22
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.73
44%
Strike defense
44%
3.33
Takedown avg.
0.76
45%
Takedown accuracy
38%
50%
Takedown defense
61%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Gil CastilloTakashi Sato
160016502004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

2 (25%)
KO/TKO
11 (73%)
2 (25%)
Submission
2 (13%)
4 (50%)
Decision
2 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Gil Castillo57%
Takashi Sato 43%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Gil Castillo a 57% favorite over Takashi Sato in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Takashi Sato's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1576 vs 1579), separated by just 3 points.

Takashi Sato enters on a 6-fight loss streak.

Gil Castillo finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Takashi Sato 87%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.