Combat Edge Intelligence

Gil Castillo vs Trukon Carson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Trukon Carson
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Trukon Carson

“The Carolina Gamedog”

6-2-0WelterweightPFL

1574Solid

Tale of the tape

8-5-0Record6-2-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'11"
TBDReach71"
170 lbsWeight171 lbs
Cesar Gracie Fight TeamTeamGym-O

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Gil CastilloNow 1576
If they win+16→ 1592
If they lose-16→ 1560
Trukon CarsonNow 1574
If they win+24→ 1598
If they lose-24→ 1550

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1609 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1498 · 8 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.60
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
45%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.22
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
44%
Strike defense
TBD
3.33
Takedown avg.
TBD
45%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
50%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Gil CastilloTrukon Carson
1550160020042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (25%)
KO/TKO
2 (33%)
2 (25%)
Submission
3 (50%)
4 (50%)
Decision
1 (17%)

Combat Edge model read

Trukon Carson59%
Gil Castillo 41%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Trukon Carson a 59% favorite over Gil Castillo in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Gil Castillo's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1576 vs 1574), separated by just 2 points.

Gil Castillo finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Trukon Carson 83%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.