Combat Edge Intelligence

Gilbert Burns vs Gunnar Nelson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-10-0Record19-6-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'11"
71"Reach72"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamMjolnir

What's at stake

Gilbert Burns is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Gunnar Nelson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gilbert BurnsNow 1744
If they win+11→ 1755
If they lose-13→ 1731
Gunnar NelsonNow 1709
If they win+18→ 1727
If they lose-14→ 1695

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1777 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1716 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.15
Sig. strikes / min
1.77
48%
Strike accuracy
61%
3.64
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.06
52%
Strike defense
49%
2.12
Takedown avg.
2
38%
Takedown accuracy
52%
54%
Takedown defense
68%
0.46
Submission avg.
1

Trajectory

Gilbert BurnsGunnar Nelson
170017501800202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (27%)
KO/TKO
4 (21%)
9 (41%)
Submission
13 (68%)
7 (32%)
Decision
2 (11%)

Combat Edge model read

Gilbert Burns63%
Gunnar Nelson 37%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Gilbert Burns a 63% favorite over Gunnar Nelson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Gilbert Burns holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1744 to 1709, a 35-point edge.

Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Gilbert Burns finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Gunnar Nelson 89%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.