Gilbert Burns vs Jack Della Maddalena
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-10-0Record18-4-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'11"
71"Reach73"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamScrappy MMA
What's at stake
Jack Della Maddalena is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Gilbert Burns carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1757
If they lose-11→ 1733
If they win+14→ 1791
If they lose-18→ 1759
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1777 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1743 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Gilbert BurnsJack Della Maddalena
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jack Della Maddalena71%
Gilbert Burns 29%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Jack Della Maddalena a 71% favorite over Gilbert Burns in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Jack Della Maddalena holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1777 to 1744, a 33-point edge.
Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Jack Della Maddalena enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Gilbert Burns finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Jack Della Maddalena 78%.
Gilbert Burns and Jack Della Maddalena share 1 common opponent: Belal Muhammad.
Jack Della Maddalena carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.