Gilbert Burns vs Jake Matthews
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-10-0Record23-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'11"
71"Reach73"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamNexus
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1757
If they lose-12→ 1733
If they win+12→ 1763
If they lose-12→ 1739
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1777 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1699 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Gilbert BurnsJake Matthews
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jake Matthews63%
Gilbert Burns 37%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Jake Matthews a 63% favorite over Gilbert Burns in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1745 vs 1751), separated by just 6 points.
Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Gilbert Burns finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Jake Matthews 61%.
Gilbert Burns and Jake Matthews share 3 common opponents: Michael Morales, Sean Brady and Neil Magny.
Jake Matthews carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.