Combat Edge Intelligence

Gilbert Burns vs Jon Fitch

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-10-0Record32-8-2
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'0"
71"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Gilbert BurnsNow 1744
If they win+12→ 1756
If they lose-12→ 1732
Jon FitchNow 1741
If they win+12→ 1753
If they lose-12→ 1729

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1777 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1673 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.15
Sig. strikes / min
2.64
48%
Strike accuracy
51%
3.64
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.75
52%
Strike defense
54%
2.12
Takedown avg.
3.64
38%
Takedown accuracy
55%
54%
Takedown defense
56%
0.46
Submission avg.
0.88

Trajectory

Gilbert BurnsJon Fitch
1750180020192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (27%)
KO/TKO
7 (22%)
9 (41%)
Submission
5 (16%)
7 (32%)
Decision
20 (63%)

Combat Edge model read

Gilbert Burns70%
Jon Fitch 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Gilbert Burns a 70% favorite over Jon Fitch in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1744 vs 1741), separated by just 3 points.

Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Gilbert Burns finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Jon Fitch 38%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.