Gilbert Burns vs Kamaru Usman
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
22-10-0Record21-4-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'10"Height6'0"
71"Reach76"
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Kamaru Usman is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Gilbert Burns carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1759
If they lose-9→ 1735
If they win+9→ 1831
If they lose-15→ 1807
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1777 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1799 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Gilbert BurnsKamaru Usman
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kamaru Usman70%
Gilbert Burns 30%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Kamaru Usman a 70% favorite over Gilbert Burns in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Kamaru Usman holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1822 to 1744, a 78-point edge.
Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Gilbert Burns finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Kamaru Usman 48%.
Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman share 2 common opponents: Jorge Masvidal and Khamzat Chimaev.
Kamaru Usman carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.