Gilbert Burns vs Khamzat Chimaev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-10-0Record15-1-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'10"Height6'2"
71"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight186 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamAllstars Training Center
What's at stake
Khamzat Chimaev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Gilbert Burns carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1759
If they lose-9→ 1735
If they win+12→ 1840
If they lose-20→ 1808
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1777 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1750 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Gilbert BurnsKhamzat Chimaev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Khamzat Chimaev84%
Gilbert Burns 16%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Khamzat Chimaev a 84% favorite over Gilbert Burns in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Khamzat Chimaev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1828 to 1744, a 84-point edge.
Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Gilbert Burns finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Khamzat Chimaev 80%.
Gilbert Burns and Khamzat Chimaev share 1 common opponent: Kamaru Usman.
Khamzat Chimaev carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.