Combat Edge Intelligence

Gilbert Burns vs Lukasz Sajewski

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-10-0Record15-6-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'8"
71"Reach71,0"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamMighty Bulls Gdynia

What's at stake

Gilbert Burns is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Lukasz Sajewski carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gilbert BurnsNow 1745
If they win+8→ 1753
If they lose-16→ 1729
Lukasz SajewskiNow 1617
If they win+22→ 1639
If they lose-10→ 1607

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1777 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1562 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.15
Sig. strikes / min
2.06
48%
Strike accuracy
36%
3.64
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.88
52%
Strike defense
58%
2.12
Takedown avg.
1.01
38%
Takedown accuracy
25%
54%
Takedown defense
67%
0.46
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Gilbert BurnsLukasz Sajewski
16001650170017501800202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (27%)
KO/TKO
2 (13%)
9 (41%)
Submission
8 (53%)
7 (32%)
Decision
5 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Gilbert Burns78%
Lukasz Sajewski 22%Elo baseline: 68%

The Combat Edge model makes Gilbert Burns a 78% favorite over Lukasz Sajewski in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).

Gilbert Burns holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1745 to 1617, a 128-point edge.

Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Gilbert Burns finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Lukasz Sajewski 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.