Gilbert Burns vs Michael Morales
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-10-0Record19-0-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'0"
71"Reach 79"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamEntram Gym· 1678 avg Elo · 12 rated
What's at stake
Michael Morales is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Gilbert Burns carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1761
If they lose-9→ 1737
If they win+12→ 1852
If they lose-20→ 1820
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1777 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1677 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Gilbert BurnsMichael Morales
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Michael Morales84%
Gilbert Burns 16%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Michael Morales a 84% favorite over Gilbert Burns in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Michael Morales holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1840 to 1746, a 94-point edge.
Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Michael Morales enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Gilbert Burns finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Michael Morales 79%.
Gilbert Burns and Michael Morales share 2 common opponents: Sean Brady and Neil Magny.
Michael Morales carries a 8-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.