Gilbert Burns vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
22-10-0Record21-5-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'9"
71"Reach70,5"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamH2O MMA· 1648 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Olivier Aubin-Mercier is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Gilbert Burns carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1760
If they lose-10→ 1736
If they win+10→ 1804
If they lose-14→ 1780
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1777 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1656 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Gilbert BurnsOlivier Aubin-Mercier
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Olivier Aubin-Mercier63%
Gilbert Burns 37%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Olivier Aubin-Mercier a 63% favorite over Gilbert Burns in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Olivier Aubin-Mercier holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1794 to 1746, a 48-point edge.
Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Olivier Aubin-Mercier enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Gilbert Burns finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Olivier Aubin-Mercier 57%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.