Combat Edge Intelligence

Gilbert Burns vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-10-0Record21-5-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'9"
71"Reach70,5"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamH2O MMA· 1644 avg Elo · 3 rated

What's at stake

Olivier Aubin-Mercier is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Gilbert Burns carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gilbert BurnsNow 1745
If they win+14→ 1759
If they lose-10→ 1735
Olivier Aubin-MercierNow 1793
If they win+10→ 1803
If they lose-14→ 1779

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1777 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1655 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.15
Sig. strikes / min
2.48
48%
Strike accuracy
51%
3.64
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.97
52%
Strike defense
56%
2.12
Takedown avg.
2.36
38%
Takedown accuracy
34%
54%
Takedown defense
71%
0.46
Submission avg.
0.51

Trajectory

Gilbert BurnsOlivier Aubin-Mercier
17001750180020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (27%)
KO/TKO
4 (19%)
9 (41%)
Submission
8 (38%)
7 (32%)
Decision
9 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

Olivier Aubin-Mercier72%
Gilbert Burns 28%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Olivier Aubin-Mercier a 72% favorite over Gilbert Burns in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Olivier Aubin-Mercier holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1793 to 1745, a 48-point edge.

Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Olivier Aubin-Mercier enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Gilbert Burns finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Olivier Aubin-Mercier 57%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.