Combat Edge Intelligence

Gilbert Burns vs Rashid Magomedov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-10-0Record25-6-1
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'9"
71"Reach70,5"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamGorets Fight Club

What's at stake

Gilbert Burns is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Rashid Magomedov carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gilbert BurnsNow 1744
If they win+11→ 1755
If they lose-13→ 1731
Rashid MagomedovNow 1728
If they win+13→ 1741
If they lose-11→ 1717

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1777 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1612 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.15
Sig. strikes / min
4.40
48%
Strike accuracy
49%
3.64
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.05
52%
Strike defense
55%
2.12
Takedown avg.
0.67
38%
Takedown accuracy
57%
54%
Takedown defense
89%
0.46
Submission avg.
0.17

Trajectory

Gilbert BurnsRashid Magomedov
1750180020192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (27%)
KO/TKO
9 (36%)
9 (41%)
Submission
1 (4%)
7 (32%)
Decision
15 (60%)

Combat Edge model read

Gilbert Burns70%
Rashid Magomedov 30%Elo baseline: 52%

The Combat Edge model makes Gilbert Burns a 70% favorite over Rashid Magomedov in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).

Gilbert Burns holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1744 to 1728, a 16-point edge.

Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Gilbert Burns finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Rashid Magomedov 40%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.