Gilbert Burns vs Rory MacDonald
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
22-10-0Record23-10-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'0"
71"Reach76.00
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamTristar Gym
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1756
If they lose-12→ 1732
If they win+12→ 1753
If they lose-12→ 1729
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1777 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1740 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Gilbert BurnsRory MacDonald
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Gilbert Burns and Rory MacDonald within a point of even.
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1744 vs 1741), separated by just 3 points.
Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Rory MacDonald enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Gilbert Burns finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Rory MacDonald 70%.
Gilbert Burns and Rory MacDonald share 1 common opponent: Stephen Thompson.
Rory MacDonald carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.