Combat Edge Intelligence

Gilbert Burns vs Sam Patterson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-10-0Record15-3-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'4"
71"Reach78"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamTeam Crossface

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Gilbert BurnsNow 1745
If they win+12→ 1757
If they lose-12→ 1733
Sam PattersonNow 1746
If they win+16→ 1762
If they lose-16→ 1730

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1777 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1639 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.15
Sig. strikes / min
2.62
48%
Strike accuracy
38%
3.64
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.06
52%
Strike defense
50%
2.12
Takedown avg.
0.82
38%
Takedown accuracy
0%
54%
Takedown defense
33%
0.46
Submission avg.
1.64

Trajectory

Gilbert BurnsSam Patterson
170017501800202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (27%)
KO/TKO
7 (47%)
9 (41%)
Submission
7 (47%)
7 (32%)
Decision
1 (7%)

Combat Edge model read

Sam Patterson63%
Gilbert Burns 37%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Sam Patterson a 63% favorite over Gilbert Burns in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1745 vs 1746), separated by just 1 points.

Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Gilbert Burns finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Sam Patterson 93%.

Sam Patterson carries a 7-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.